争いあり · Next one to three months after 2026-09-26 cutoff.
航路・供給の回復
IEA reports some Hormuz flow recovery and major bypass/non-Gulf offsets, but August flow remains estimated 13.1 mb/d below pre-conflict and route data are provisional through 12 September. No repeated late-September vessel census, repeated verified loadings or destination arrivals establish normalization. Held Saudi route/STS claims do not close this gap.
Event: evt-20260927-imo-hormuz-incident-register · Evidence: iea-commentary-20260918, eia-us-retail-20260921, me-20260925-saudi-reroute-sts-insurance
PROBABILITY · UNESTIMATED
シナリオは併存し、事前に定義した判定可能なForecastVersionがないため未推定。
次の観測： Repeated, comparable vessel-class transit counts, actual pipeline/terminal loadings, departures and destination receipt data.
支持あり · Through Q4 2026; revisit with comparable monthly data.
制約の長期化
IEA’s 18 September account, based on provisional Kpler data, supports continuing Gulf supply constraints with partial offsets: August Hormuz flows averaged 7.6 mb/d, 13.1 mb/d below pre-conflict, while bypass exports had fallen from a June peak by August. The 85-incident IMO register indicates ongoing human/safety exposure but is not a flow measure. EIA US pump prices are a separate national series, not proof of the global disruption’s local pass-through.
Event: evt-20260927-imo-hormuz-incident-register · Evidence: iea-commentary-20260918, iea-oil-market-report-20260911, evt-20260927-imo-hormuz-incident-register
PROBABILITY · UNESTIMATED
定量確率なし。予測の方向は明示した観測更新で再評価する。
次の観測： October IEA/EIA releases, verified monthly terminal and destination flows, stocks, product availability, and comparable country-level retail-price series.
争いあり · Cutoff observation through the following one to three months.
障害の拡大
CAPE DAO’s fatality is confirmed in the IMO register, but the register records a maritime incident and no pollution, not an energy-facility hit or throughput loss. The coalition’s 24 September missile-interception claim is issuer-attributed and held; no impact to Yanbu port, vessels, pipeline or oil cargo is verified. The evidence does not support declaring a new widening of regional supply impairment.
Event: evt-20260927-imo-hormuz-incident-register · Evidence: evt-20260927-imo-hormuz-incident-register, me-20260924-coalition-yanbu-missile-claim
PROBABILITY · UNESTIMATED
新たな拡大を示す判定可能な命題・反証条件が不足。
次の観測： Independent confirmation of route/port/facility damage, verified closure notices or sustained drops in actual loadings/transits; preserve attribution distinctions.
