争いあり · Next one to three months after the 2026-09-25 cutoff.
航路・供給の回復
## 中東・海上交通・エネルギー｜2026年9月25日18:00 UTC締切
根拠は部分的な相殺を伴う制約の継続を支持するが、全面閉鎖や航路正常化は確認できない。EIA・IEAの見通しと月次資料は9月下旬の通過・到着量の全数調査ではない。Anadolu Agencyの9月23日付報道は、オマーン当局の説明としてCAPE DAOがムサンダム沖2.5海里で攻撃され、27人が避難し1人が死亡したと伝える（[Anadolu Agency](https://www.aa.com.tr/fr/monde/oman-un-membre-d-%C3%A9quipage-tu%C3%A9-et-27-%C3%A9vacu%C3%A9s-apr%C3%A8s-qu-un-navire-a-%C3%A9t%C3%A9-pris-pour-cible-pr%C3%A8s-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz/4066717)）。正確な時刻・位置、UKMTOが報告した2人目の死傷者、武器・行為者は未解決で、確定World Event IDはない。
UK P&I Circular 15/26は指定契約条項の変更である。傭船者責任・固定保険料・オフショア条項に関する改定が9月25日12:00 UTCに発効し、定義された紅海除外の文言を拡張した（[UK P&I notice](https://www.ukpandi.com/news-and-resources/circulars/article/circular-15/26-notice-of-amendment-to-the-clubs-terms-and-conditions/)）。保険市場全体の引受停止、保険料、個別船の加入可否を示すものではない。
Event: · Evidence: eia-steo-sep26, iea-omr-sep26, iea-commentary-20260918, cand-20260926-saudi-hormuz-flow-sohar-sts, reported-pipeline-yanbu-0924, reported-transit-counts-0923
PROBABILITY · UNESTIMATED
未推定。シナリオは併存し、該当ForecastVersionはない。
次の観測： Resolve article publication time; obtain repeated vessel-class transit counts, verified pipeline/terminal loading and destination arrivals.
支持あり · Through Q4 2026; revisit as comparable monthly data arrive.
制約の長期化
September EIA/IEA outlooks and monthly evidence support continued constraints with partial offsets, not zero flow. UK P&I’s dated notice confirms a specified Red Sea exclusion-wording change effective 25 Sep 12:00Z for named contract terms; it does not quantify market-wide insurance friction. Late-Sep actual arrivals, repeated loadings and comparable freight/insurance observations are incomplete.
Event: · Evidence: eia-steo-sep26, iea-omr-sep26, iea-commentary-20260918, topic-evidence-ukpi-circular-15-26, reported-yanbu-insurance-0924, reported-pipeline-yanbu-0924
PROBABILITY · UNESTIMATED
未推定。シナリオは併存し、該当ForecastVersionはない。
次の観測： Compare monthly production/export and buyer arrivals with fixed pre-conflict baselines; verify port loadings and like-for-like policy/quote evidence.
争いあり · Cutoff observation through the following one to three months.
障害の拡大
An Anadolu report dated 23 Sep relays Oman MSC’s account naming CAPE DAO, 27 crew evacuated and one fatality, adding detail beyond the earlier generic UKMTO-attributed report. Exact original Oman post/time, precise location and the second UKMTO-reported casualty remain unresolved; Oman/Anadolu and current IMO location descriptions differ. One reported Hormuz incident does not establish simultaneous impairment of multiple routes or a major bypass asset, the scenario threshold. No World Event ID was created.
Event: · Evidence: topic-evidence-cape-dao-anadolu-20260923, reported-hormuz-incident-0923, wos-imo-media-centre, wos-us-marad-advisories
PROBABILITY · UNESTIMATED
未推定。シナリオは併存し、該当ForecastVersionはない。
次の観測： Coordinator to review the added source. Verify exact UKMTO/Oman/IMO records, location and casualty breakdown; test for concurrent route/facility impairment.
